Turning Georgia blue and winning control of the Senate
The Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock campaigns utilized our candidate-specific modeling to win in the 2021 Georgia runoff election.
Created candidate-specific support scores, which helped to identify each candidate’s supporters
Created a runoff-specific turnout score, which allowed us to effectively target voters and run race projections
Created two persuasion scores, including one combined score, built on a message that featured both Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock
Created a GOTV (get-out-the-vote) model to make final voter contact efforts more efficient
Crafted path-to-victory plans to leverage each candidate’s particular strengths
The Challenge + The Opportunity
Stacey Abrams’ historic gubernatorial campaign in 2018 put the national spotlight on Georgia as a competitive state to watch in 2020, especially with two Senate races. Winning a Senate race in Georgia requires over 50% of the vote. If no candidate receives 50% in the general election, the top two candidates go to a runoff. The two 2020 Senate elections in Georgia both went to a runoff, and would determine control of the U.S. Senate. While Biden won the state, he came out ahead by fewer than 12k votes, and runoff turnout historically comes in lower and more conservative than general election turnout. This crucial election provided a huge challenge, but also a huge opportunity to capitalize on the particular strengths of two unique and strong candidates, as well as build on the lessons of the 2018 gubernatorial election in Georgia.
Clarity’s Solution
Clarity worked with the DSCC, as well as the Ossoff and Warnock campaigns to employ data analytics tools that helped coordinate the work of the two campaigns and foster a complementary strategy for the Senate-focused runoff election. Clarity’s approach combined custom modeling and strategic path-to-victory planning, incorporating each candidate’s particular strengths.
Clarity built candidate-specific support scores, to identify supporters of each candidate and highlight the nuances of each race.
Clarity created a runoff-specific turnout score, which helped to effectively find likely voters, identify turnout targets, and run race projections. This also allowed for more representative polling samples and more appropriate survey weighting.
Clarity created multiple persuasion scores, including one combined score, built on a message that mentioned both Ossoff and Warnock. Building persuasion models on specific messages allowed the campaigns to identify which messaging would work best for which voters, and which individuals were likely to backlash if faced with a particular message.
Clarity created a GOTV (get-out-the-vote) model to make final voter contact efforts more efficient. With many volunteers jumping in for this crucial election, the GOTV score allowed for quick and straightforward universe creation.
Clarity crafted path-to-victory plans to leverage each candidate’s particular strengths and help with strategic planning.
The Results
Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock both won their runoff elections, with 50.6% and 51.0% of the vote, respectively. As a result, Democrats took control of the Senate, with Vice President Harris breaking the tie. The DSCC and the Ossoff and Warnock campaigns worked collaboratively to ensure that each candidate played to their strengths and lifted up the other.
Clarity’s analytics work helped to highlight the nuances of the two races, emphasize the need for a balance of turnout work and persuasion work, and effectively deploy tools and strategies to reach the right voters with the right messaging.
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